2 games to target in the egg bowl

The battle for the Egg Bowl moves to Oxford on Thursday night when the Ole Miss Rebels host the Mississippi State Bulldogs. A win by the Rebels would give them a third straight win in this in-state rivalry.

And as if there wasn’t already enough at stake in this matchup, a fresh report began circulating on Monday about Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin possibly leaving his post to take the same position at Auburn.

We’re going to dive into this bomb report and examine how it affects our handicap in this game.

Spread: MST +2.5 (-105) vs. MISS -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline: MST (+115) vs. MISS (-140)

Total: Over 59 (-110) | Under 59 (-110)

Mississippi State +2.5 | Under 59 points

I was excited about this report as soon as I heard about it, because it’s exactly the kind of thing that can replace any preconceived notions you might have going into this game.

Jon Sokoloff of WCBI in Columbus was the first to report the story, and soon it spread like wildfire.

It’s quite a story to put your reputation on the line, especially when Kiffin took to Twitter to deny the report.

“That’s news to me Jon. Nice sources.” Kiffin tweeted.

I’m not sure if Sokoloff is a plant for Mississippi State, but if his report turns out to be inaccurate, he might have to turn in his press card for good or say his Twitter account was hacked.

Regardless, whether he’s right or wrong, I think this is a game you’ll want to treat very carefully if you’re a bettor because there are now even more unknowns to consider in our handicap.

But if we turn our attention to the struggle on the field, I think you must be a little concerned with what you have seen of late from the rebels.

Ole Miss and Kiffin seem to pair up like cheap lawn chairs whenever they find themselves in a big place.

First, they lose by 25 points on the road against LSU. They then suffered another loss against an Alabama team that had little to play for after taking another loss that will likely keep them out of the College Football Playoff.

And when you factor in the Kiffin story, it’s entirely possible that Ole Miss is a little distracted heading into this game.

As a result, you can almost throw out any Xs and Os analysis for this game.

I’d say the recent trends favor the visitors, as the away team is currently 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last seven meetings.

Also, our Action Labs database shows that Mississippi State is on a 5-1 ATS run as underdogs in the last six meetings.

Finally, given such an intense rivalry in this game, it might also be worth considering an under bet.

The last five games have gone under the total, and date back to 2006, under is 13-3.